Tree diversity enhances predation by birds but not by arthropods across climate gradients.

Tree diversity can promote both predator abundance and diversity. However, whether this translates into increased predation and top-down control of herbivores across predator taxonomic groups and contrasting environmental conditions remains unresolved. We used a global network of tree diversity experiments (TreeDivNet) spread across three continents and three biomes to test the effects of tree species richness on predation across varying climatic conditions of temperature and precipitation. We recorded bird and arthropod predation attempts on plasticine caterpillars in monocultures and tree species mixtures. Both tree species richness and temperature increased predation by birds but not by arthropods. Furthermore, the effects of tree species richness on predation were consistent across the studied climatic gradient. Our findings provide evidence that tree diversity strengthens top-down control of insect herbivores by birds, underscoring the need to implement conservation strategies that safeguard tree diversity to sustain ecosystem services provided by natural enemies in forests.

Effects of plant diversity on productivity strengthen over time due to trait-dependent shifts in species overyielding.

Plant diversity effects on community productivity often increase over time. Whether the strengthening of diversity effects is caused by temporal shifts in species-level overyielding (i.e., higher species-level productivity in diverse communities compared with monocultures) remains unclear. Here, using data from 65 grassland and forest biodiversity experiments, we show that the temporal strength of diversity effects at the community scale is underpinned by temporal changes in the species that yield. These temporal trends of species-level overyielding are shaped by plant ecological strategies, which can be quantitatively delimited by functional traits. In grasslands, the temporal strengthening of biodiversity effects on community productivity was associated with increasing biomass overyielding of resource-conservative species increasing over time, and with overyielding of species characterized by fast resource acquisition either decreasing or increasing. In forests, temporal trends in species overyielding differ when considering above- versus belowground resource acquisition strategies. Overyielding in stem growth decreased for species with high light capture capacity but increased for those with high soil resource acquisition capacity. Our results imply that a diversity of species with different, and potentially complementary, ecological strategies is beneficial for maintaining community productivity over time in both grassland and forest ecosystems.

Assessment of temporal instability in the applied ecology and conservation evidence base.

Outcomes of meta-analyses are increasingly used to inform evidence-based decision making in various research fields. However, a number of recent studies have reported rapid temporal changes in magnitude and significance of the reported effects which could make policy-relevant recommendations from meta-analyses to quickly go out of date. We assessed the extent and patterns of temporal trends in magnitude and statistical significance of the cumulative effects in meta-analyses in applied ecology and conservation published between 2004 and 2018. Of the 121 meta-analyses analysed, 93% showed a temporal trend in cumulative effect magnitude or significance with 27% of the datasets exhibiting temporal trends in both. The most common trend was the early study effect when at least one of the first 5 years effect size estimates exhibited more than 50% magnitude difference to the subsequent estimate. The observed temporal trends persisted in majority of datasets once moderators were accounted for. Only 5 datasets showed significant changes in sample size over time which could potentially explain the observed temporal change in the cumulative effects. Year of publication of meta-analysis had no significant effect on presence of temporal trends in cumulative effects. Our results show that temporal changes in magnitude and statistical significance in applied ecology are widespread and represent a serious potential threat to use of meta-analyses for decision-making in conservation and environmental management. We recommend use of cumulative meta-analyses and call for more studies exploring the causes of the temporal effects.

Publication bias impacts on effect size, statistical power, and magnitude (Type M) and sign (Type S) errors in ecology and evolutionary biology.

Collaborative efforts to directly replicate empirical studies in the medical and social sciences have revealed alarmingly low rates of replicability, a phenomenon dubbed the 'replication crisis'. Poor replicability has spurred cultural changes targeted at improving reliability in these disciplines. Given the absence of equivalent replication projects in ecology and evolutionary biology, two inter-related indicators offer the opportunity to retrospectively assess replicability: publication bias and statistical power. This registered report assesses the prevalence and severity of small-study (i.e., smaller studies reporting larger effect sizes) and decline effects (i.e., effect sizes decreasing over time) across ecology and evolutionary biology using 87 meta-analyses comprising 4,250 primary studies and 17,638 effect sizes. Further, we estimate how publication bias might distort the estimation of effect sizes, statistical power, and errors in magnitude (Type M or exaggeration ratio) and sign (Type S). We show strong evidence for the pervasiveness of both small-study and decline effects in ecology and evolution. There was widespread prevalence of publication bias that resulted in meta-analytic means being over-estimated by (at least) 0.12 standard deviations. The prevalence of publication bias distorted confidence in meta-analytic results, with 66% of initially statistically significant meta-analytic means becoming non-significant after correcting for publication bias. Ecological and evolutionary studies consistently had low statistical power (15%) with a 4-fold exaggeration of effects on average (Type M error rates = 4.4). Notably, publication bias reduced power from 23% to 15% and increased type M error rates from 2.7 to 4.4 because it creates a non-random sample of effect size evidence. The sign errors of effect sizes (Type S error) increased from 5% to 8% because of publication bias. Our research provides clear evidence that many published ecological and evolutionary findings are inflated. Our results highlight the importance of designing high-power empirical studies (e.g., via collaborative team science), promoting and encouraging replication studies, testing and correcting for publication bias in meta-analyses, and adopting open and transparent research practices, such as (pre)registration, data- and code-sharing, and transparent reporting.

Plant neighbourhood diversity effects on leaf traits: A meta-analysis.

Leaf traits often vary with plant neighbourhood composition, which in turn may mediate plant susceptibility to herbivory. However, it is unknown whether there are any common patterns of change in leaf trait expression in response to neighbourhood diversity, and whether these responses confer increased resistance or susceptibility to herbivores.We used meta-analysis to combine data from 43 studies that examined the influence of neighbourhood diversity on eight physical and chemical leaf traits that could affect herbivory. All leaf traits apart from leaf thickness were highly plastic and exhibited significant differences between plant monocultures and species mixtures, but the direction of effect was variable. Leaf toughness was the only trait that displayed a significant decrease with plant diversity, whereas specific leaf area (SLA) and leaf nitrogen were both marginally increased in species mixtures.The magnitude and direction of leaf trait responses to neighbourhood diversity were independent of plant density and phylogenetic diversity, but changes in SLA correlated positively with plant species richness. SLA was also significantly increased in experimental studies, but not in observational studies, while neighbourhoods containing nitrogen-fixers were associated with increased leaf nitrogen and reduced phenolics. When studies on the over-represented species Betula pendula were removed from the analysis, the effect of neighbourhood diversity on leaf toughness became nonsignificant, but phenolics were significantly reduced in diverse neighbourhoods composed of mature trees, and marginally reduced in species mixtures across all studies.Increases in plant neighbourhood diversity are often associated with reductions of herbivory, although in some cases, the reverse occurs, and plants growing in species mixtures are found to suffer greater herbivory than those in monocultures. This study offers a potential explanation for the latter phenomenon, as our results show that leaf trait expression is highly plastic in response to neighbourhood diversity, and in certain cases could lead to increased leaf quality, which in turn could promote greater rates of herbivory. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Herbivory on the pedunculate oak along an urbanization gradient in Europe: Effects of impervious surface, local tree cover, and insect feeding guild.

Urbanization is an important driver of the diversity and abundance of tree-associated insect herbivores, but its consequences for insect herbivory are poorly understood. A likely source of variability among studies is the insufficient consideration of intra-urban variability in forest cover. With the help of citizen scientists, we investigated the independent and interactive effects of local canopy cover and percentage of impervious surface on insect herbivory in the pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) throughout most of its geographic range in Europe. We found that the damage caused by chewing insect herbivores as well as the incidence of leaf-mining and gall-inducing herbivores consistently decreased with increasing impervious surface around focal oaks. Herbivory by chewing herbivores increased with increasing forest cover, regardless of impervious surface. In contrast, an increase in local canopy cover buffered the negative effect of impervious surface on leaf miners and strengthened its effect on gall inducers. These results show that-just like in non-urban areas-plant-herbivore interactions in cities are structured by a complex set of interacting factors. This highlights that local habitat characteristics within cities have the potential to attenuate or modify the effect of impervious surfaces on biotic interactions.

Agrochemicals interact synergistically to increase bee mortality.

Global concern over widely documented declines in pollinators1-3 has led to the identification of anthropogenic stressors that, individually, are detrimental to bee populations4-7. Synergistic interactions between these stressors could substantially amplify the environmental effect of these stressors and could therefore have important implications for policy decisions that aim to improve the health of pollinators3,8,9. Here, to quantitatively assess the scale of this threat, we conducted a meta-analysis of 356 interaction effect sizes from 90 studies in which bees were exposed to combinations of agrochemicals, nutritional stressors and/or parasites. We found an overall synergistic effect between multiple stressors on bee mortality. Subgroup analysis of bee mortality revealed strong evidence for synergy when bees were exposed to multiple agrochemicals at field-realistic levels, but interactions were not greater than additive expectations when bees were exposed to parasites and/or nutritional stressors. All interactive effects on proxies of fitness, behaviour, parasite load and immune responses were either additive or antagonistic; therefore, the potential mechanisms that drive the observed synergistic interactions for bee mortality remain unclear. Environmental risk assessment schemes that assume additive effects of the risk of agrochemical exposure may underestimate the interactive effect of anthropogenic stressors on bee mortality and will fail to protect the pollinators that provide a key ecosystem service that underpins sustainable agriculture.

Preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses in ecology and evolutionary biology: a PRISMA extension.

Since the early 1990s, ecologists and evolutionary biologists have aggregated primary research using meta-analytic methods to understand ecological and evolutionary phenomena. Meta-analyses can resolve long-standing disputes, dispel spurious claims, and generate new research questions. At their worst, however, meta-analysis publications are wolves in sheep's clothing: subjective with biased conclusions, hidden under coats of objective authority. Conclusions can be rendered unreliable by inappropriate statistical methods, problems with the methods used to select primary research, or problems within the primary research itself. Because of these risks, meta-analyses are increasingly conducted as part of systematic reviews, which use structured, transparent, and reproducible methods to collate and summarise evidence. For readers to determine whether the conclusions from a systematic review or meta-analysis should be trusted - and to be able to build upon the review - authors need to report what they did, why they did it, and what they found. Complete, transparent, and reproducible reporting is measured by 'reporting quality'. To assess perceptions and standards of reporting quality of systematic reviews and meta-analyses published in ecology and evolutionary biology, we surveyed 208 researchers with relevant experience (as authors, reviewers, or editors), and conducted detailed evaluations of 102 systematic review and meta-analysis papers published between 2010 and 2019. Reporting quality was far below optimal and approximately normally distributed. Measured reporting quality was lower than what the community perceived, particularly for the systematic review methods required to measure trustworthiness. The minority of assessed papers that referenced a guideline (~16%) showed substantially higher reporting quality than average, and surveyed researchers showed interest in using a reporting guideline to improve reporting quality. The leading guideline for improving reporting quality of systematic reviews is the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. Here we unveil an extension of PRISMA to serve the meta-analysis community in ecology and evolutionary biology: PRISMA-EcoEvo (version 1.0). PRISMA-EcoEvo is a checklist of 27 main items that, when applicable, should be reported in systematic review and meta-analysis publications summarising primary research in ecology and evolutionary biology. In this explanation and elaboration document, we provide guidance for authors, reviewers, and editors, with explanations for each item on the checklist, including supplementary examples from published papers. Authors can consult this PRISMA-EcoEvo guideline both in the planning and writing stages of a systematic review and meta-analysis, to increase reporting quality of submitted manuscripts. Reviewers and editors can use the checklist to assess reporting quality in the manuscripts they review. Overall, PRISMA-EcoEvo is a resource for the ecology and evolutionary biology community to facilitate transparent and comprehensively reported systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

Tree Species Richness and Neighborhood Effects on Ectomycorrhizal Fungal Richness and Community Structure in Boreal Forest.

Tree species identity is one of the key factors driving ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungal richness and community composition in boreal and temperate forest ecosystems, but little is known about the influence of tree species combinations and their neighborhood effects on EcM communities. To advance our understanding of host plant effects on EcM fungi, the roots of silver birch, Scots pine, and Norway spruce were analyzed using high-throughput sequencing across mature boreal forest exploratory plots of monocultures and two- and three-species mixtures in Finland. Our analyses revealed that tree species identity was an important determinant of EcM fungal community composition, but tree species richness had no significant influence on EcM fungal richness and community composition. We found that EcM fungal community composition associated with spruce depends on neighboring tree species. Our study suggests that at a regional-scale tree species identity is the primary factor determining community composition of root-associated EcM fungi alongside with tree species composition effects on EcM fungal community of spruce in mixed stands.

Climate affects neighbour-induced changes in leaf chemical defences and tree diversity-herbivory relationships.

Associational resistance theory predicts that insect herbivory decreases with increasing tree diversity in forest ecosystems. However, the generality of this effect and its underlying mechanisms are still debated, particularly since evidence has accumulated that climate may influence the direction and strength of the relationship between diversity and herbivory.We quantified insect leaf herbivory and leaf chemical defences (phenolic compounds) of silver birch Betula pendula in pure and mixed plots with different tree species composition across 12 tree diversity experiments in different climates. We investigated whether the effects of neighbouring tree species diversity on insect herbivory in birch, that is, associational effects, were dependent on the climatic context, and whether neighbour-induced changes in birch chemical defences were involved in associational resistance to insect herbivory.We showed that herbivory on birch decreased with tree species richness (i.e. associational resistance) in colder environments but that this relationship faded as mean annual temperature increased.Birch leaf chemical defences increased with tree species richness but decreased with the phylogenetic distinctiveness of birch from its neighbours, particularly in warmer and more humid environments.Herbivory was negatively correlated with leaf chemical defences, particularly when birch was associated with closely related species. The interactive effect of tree diversity and climate on herbivory was partially mediated by changes in leaf chemical defences.Our findings confirm that tree species diversity can modify the leaf chemistry of a focal species, hence its quality for herbivores. They further stress that such neighbour-induced changes are dependent on climate and that tree diversity effects on insect herbivory are partially mediated by these neighbour-induced changes in chemical defences.

Predictability of Biotic Stress Structures Plant Defence Evolution.

To achieve ecological and reproductive success, plants need to mitigate a multitude of stressors. The stressors encountered by plants are highly dynamic but typically vary predictably due to seasonality or correlations among stressors. As plants face physiological and ecological constraints in responses to stress, it can be beneficial for plants to evolve the ability to incorporate predictable patterns of stress in their life histories. Here, we discuss how plants predict adverse conditions, which plant strategies integrate predictability of biotic stress, and how such strategies can evolve. We propose that plants commonly optimise responses to correlated sequences or combinations of herbivores and pathogens, and that the predictability of these patterns is a key factor governing plant strategies in dynamic environments.

Eight problems with literature reviews and how to fix them.

Traditional approaches to reviewing literature may be susceptible to bias and result in incorrect decisions. This is of particular concern when reviews address policy- and practice-relevant questions. Systematic reviews have been introduced as a more rigorous approach to synthesizing evidence across studies; they rely on a suite of evidence-based methods aimed at maximizing rigour and minimizing susceptibility to bias. Despite the increasing popularity of systematic reviews in the environmental field, evidence synthesis methods continue to be poorly applied in practice, resulting in the publication of syntheses that are highly susceptible to bias. Recognizing the constraints that researchers can sometimes feel when attempting to plan, conduct and publish rigorous and comprehensive evidence syntheses, we aim here to identify major pitfalls in the conduct and reporting of systematic reviews, making use of recent examples from across the field. Adopting a 'critical friend' role in supporting would-be systematic reviews and avoiding individual responses to police use of the 'systematic review' label, we go on to identify methodological solutions to mitigate these pitfalls. We then highlight existing support available to avoid these issues and call on the entire community, including systematic review specialists, to work towards better evidence syntheses for better evidence and better decisions.

Author Correction: Eight problems with literature reviews and how to fix them.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Introducing our series: research synthesis and meta-research in biology.

Research synthesis is the process of bringing together findings and attributes from different publications, for example, to give a more complete description of phenomena than is usually possible in a single work. We bring the Research Synthesis Series to BMC Biology to promote meta-analyses, other research syntheses including meta-research studies, and research synthesis methodologies in biology, facilitating their dissemination to broader communities.

How do trees respond to species mixing in experimental compared to observational studies?

For decades, ecologists have investigated the effects of tree species diversity on tree productivity at different scales and with different approaches ranging from observational to experimental study designs. Using data from five European national forest inventories (16,773 plots), six tree species diversity experiments (584 plots), and six networks of comparative plots (169 plots), we tested whether tree species growth responses to species mixing are consistent and therefore transferrable between those different research approaches. Our results confirm the general positive effect of tree species mixing on species growth (16% on average) but we found no consistency in species-specific responses to mixing between any of the three approaches, even after restricting comparisons to only those plots that shared similar mixtures compositions and forest types. These findings highlight the necessity to consider results from different research approaches when selecting species mixtures that should maximize positive forest biodiversity and functioning relationships.

Author Correction: Diversity-dependent temporal divergence of ecosystem functioning in experimental ecosystems.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Responses of forest insect pests to climate change: not so simple.

Climate change is a multi-faceted phenomenon, including elevated CO2, warmer temperatures, more severe droughts and more frequent storms. All these components can affect forest pests directly, or indirectly through interactions with host trees and natural enemies. Most of the responses of forest insect herbivores to climate change are expected to be positive, with shorter generation time, higher fecundity and survival, leading to increased range expansion and outbreaks. Forest insect pest can also benefit from synergistic effects of several climate change pressures, such as hotter droughts or warmer storms. However, lesser known negative effects are also likely, such as lethal effects of heat waves or thermal shocks, less palatable host tissues or more abundant parasitoids and predators. The complex interplay between abiotic stressors, host trees, insect herbivores and their natural enemies makes it very difficult to predict overall consequences of climate change on forest health. This calls for the development of process-based models to simulate pest population dynamics under climate change scenarios.

Temporal Instability of Evidence Base: A Threat to Policy Making?

A shift towards evidence-based conservation and environmental management over the last two decades has resulted in an increased use of systematic reviews and meta-analyses as tools to combine existing scientific evidence. However, to guide policy making decisions in conservation and management, the conclusions of meta-analyses need to remain stable for at least some years. Alarmingly, numerous recent studies indicate that the magnitude, statistical significance, and even the sign of the effects reported in the literature might change over relatively short time periods. We argue that such rapid temporal changes in cumulative evidence represent a real threat to policy making in conservation and environmental management and call for systematic monitoring of temporal changes in evidence and exploration of their causes.